On the last trading day before the holiday, trading was sluggish, and the rise in SHFE copper premiums indicated a trend. [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

SMM September 30:

       Today, spot prices of SMM #1 copper cathode against the SHFE copper 2510 spot month contract were quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a premium of 90 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 15 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 82,960 to 83,520 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper started to pull back from 83,630 yuan/mt, continued to decline to 83,000 yuan/mt, and returned to 83,280 yuan/mt near the close. The intermonth price spread still fluctuated near 0, while the import loss for SHFE copper spot month expanded to nearly 900 yuan/mt.

       Intraday procurement and sales sentiment both declined, partly due to sluggish market activity after copper prices broke through 83,500 yuan/mt, and partly because trading tends to be weaker at the end of the quarter and month. Only some downstream users made just-in-time procurement and traders made purchases at low prices intraday. The procurement sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region was 2.94, while sales sentiment was 3.02. At the beginning of the morning session, a few suppliers' offers of standard-quality copper at a discount of 80 to 60 yuan/mt were quickly traded, after which the quotation center shifted up to around a discount of 40 yuan/mt to parity. High-quality copper was scarce, with only some CCC-P quoted at around a premium of 80 yuan/mt. SX-EW copper transactions were sparse, at around a discount of 90 yuan/mt. Non-registered sources were quoted at a relatively high discount of around 100 yuan/mt.

       Looking ahead after the holiday, considering the high funding costs brought by high copper prices, suppliers are expected to quote premiums as high as 100 yuan/mt. Moreover, as there are profitable opportunities for copper cathode exports recently, smelters are expected to plan related export matters during the holiday. Although imported copper will supplement the market after the holiday, domestic supply is tight approaching the delivery date, and premiums are expected to remain firm.